Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
F9 1417 · MCO → IAH
departs 1:32 PM ET · arrives 3:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 20%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.47 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.