Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
F9 1476 · DFW → BWI
departs 7:21 AM CT · arrives 11:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Mon 10/12 18%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
7am departures from DFW are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.