Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1704
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
F9 1704 · PHX → IAH
departs 12:19 PM MT · arrives 5:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 25%
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.