Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2265
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
F9 2265 · SJU → BWI
departs 4:24 PM AT · arrives 8:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Thu 10/15 35%
Sun 10/18 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.