Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
F9 2857 · LAX → SFO
departs 8:38 AM PT · arrives 10:14 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 45%
Fri 10/16 46%
Sun 10/18 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
−19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −19 pts in 24h
−19 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.