Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3068
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
F9 3068 · IAH → BWI
departs 4:21 PM CT · arrives 8:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Mon 10/12 53%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 36%
Thu 10/15 41%
Fri 10/16 43%
Sat 10/17 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
4pm departures from IAH are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.