F9 3453 · LGA → ATL

departs 5:02 PM ET · arrives 7:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 50% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3453 · LGA → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?