Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4158
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
F9 4158 · SFO → LAS
departs 11:20 AM PT · arrives 1:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Mon 10/12 45%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 33%
Thu 10/15 45%
Fri 10/16 44%
Sat 10/17 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
11am departures from SFO are often late
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.