Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4211
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
F9 4211 · ATL → AUS
departs 4:27 PM ET · arrives 6:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 23%
Sun 10/18 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
4pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.