Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
F9 4409 · IAD → ATL
departs 8:52 PM ET · arrives 10:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Mon 10/12 38%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 27%
Thu 10/15 38%
Fri 10/16 35%
Sat 10/17 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.