Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ICELANDAIR · FLIGHT FI 623 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

FI 623 · KEF → EWR

departs 5:00 PM GMT · arrives 7:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±11 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KEF

Weather at each end

KEF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

FI 623 · KEF → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?