Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ICELANDAIR · FLIGHT FI 641 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

FI 641 · KEF → BWI

departs 7:50 PM GMT · arrives 10:27 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KEF

Weather at each end

KEF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

FI 641 · KEF → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?