Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 221
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Today
G4 221 · AVL → SFB
departs 9:30 AM ET · arrives 11:11 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/17 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AVL
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFB (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.