Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
GOJET · FLIGHT G7 4170
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
G7 4170 · BUF → IAD
departs 7:58 PM ET · arrives 9:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Mon 10/12 23%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at BUF that day
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.22 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.