G7 4468 · ROC → IAD

departs 6:22 AM ET · arrives 7:43 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from ROC are usually not late

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

IAD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4468 · ROC → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?