Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 376
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
IB 376 · IAD → MAD
departs 8:27 PM ET · arrives 9:48 AM CEST
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Thu 10/15 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MAD?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.