JL 3 · JFK → HND

took off 2:04 AM ET · expected to land 4:09 AM JST (scheduled 1:45 AM ET → 4:42 AM JST)

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at HND more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HND?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↑ 1am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HND (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

JL 3 · JFK → HND

Odds over time

How late will it get to HND?