Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
STARLUX · FLIGHT JX 11
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
JX 11 · SFO → TPE
departs 1:00 AM PT · arrives 5:26 AM CST
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPE more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.2d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at TPE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPE?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
1am departures from SFO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPE (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.