KE 5 · ICN → LAS

departs 8:59 PM KST · arrives 3:37 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±10 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ICN

Weather at each end

ICN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KE 5 · ICN → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?