Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DENVER AIR CONNECTION · FLIGHT KG 5407 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

KG 5407 · CVN → DFW

departs 8:18 AM MT · arrives 10:44 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVN

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CVN (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KG 5407 · CVN → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?