Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
LH 402 · FRA → EWR
departs 1:20 PM CEST · arrives 4:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 25%
Thu 10/15 33%
Fri 10/16 43%
Sat 10/17 31%
Sun 10/18 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.3d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
Weather at each end
FRA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.