Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
LH 412 · MUC → EWR
departs 4:00 PM CEST · arrives 7:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 41%
Thu 10/15 41%
Fri 10/16 58%
Sat 10/17 38%
Sun 10/18 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±7 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MUC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MUC
Weather at each end
MUC (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.