LO 15 · WAW → EWR

departs 5:19 PM CEST · arrives 8:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±7 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

WAW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LO 15 · WAW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?