Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

LOT · FLIGHT LO 26 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

LO 26 · WAW → JFK

departs 4:50 PM CEST · arrives 8:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at WAW

Weather at each end

WAW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LO 26 · WAW → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?