Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3381
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 3381 · HSV → ORD
departs 6:02 AM CT · arrives 7:49 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Mon 10/12 13%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HSV is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HSV
Weather at each end
HSV (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.