Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3455
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
MQ 3455 · PHX → SAF
departs 8:57 AM MT · arrives 11:22 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAF more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SAF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAF?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at SAF that day
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
SAF (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.