Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3490
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 3490 · DFW → FAR
departs 8:14 AM CT · arrives 11:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/12 8%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at FAR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAR?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,033 ft forecast at FAR that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at DFW that day
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FAR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 867 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.