Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3818
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 3818 · HRL → DFW
departs 5:43 AM CT · arrives 7:25 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 3%
Mon 10/12 4%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 5%
Thu 10/15 4%
Fri 10/16 5%
Sat 10/17 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
3%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
3%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Leave HRL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
HRL usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
HRL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.