Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3819
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
MQ 3819 · PHX → EUG
departs 10:22 AM MT · arrives 1:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at EUG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EUG?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EUG
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
EUG (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.