Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
MQ 3857 · BOS → SYR
departs 11:18 AM ET · arrives 12:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SYR?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SYR that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
11am departures from BOS are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SYR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.03 in
SYR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.