Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 3857 · SYR → BOS
departs 1:09 PM ET · arrives 2:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Mon 10/12 46%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 37%
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SYR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SYR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.