Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3926
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 3926 · DFW → CLL
departs 9:19 AM CT · arrives 10:21 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/12 7%
Tue 10/13
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLL more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at CLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLL?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at CLL that day
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DFW that day
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLL (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.