Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3974
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 3974 · ICT → PHX
departs 6:03 AM CT · arrives 6:31 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Mon 10/12 11%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 7%
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 8%
Sat 10/17 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ICT (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.