Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4010
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4010 · DFW → MHK
departs 9:46 AM CT · arrives 11:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Mon 10/12 7%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 9%
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MHK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MHK?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into MHK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MHK (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 11,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.