Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4030
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4030 · SBA → PHX
departs 10:04 AM PT · arrives 11:41 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Mon 10/12 20%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↑
SBA is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.