Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4039
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4039 · DFW → SAT
departs 9:30 AM CT · arrives 10:44 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Mon 10/12 14%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DFW that day
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.