Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4040
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4040 · DEN → PHX
departs 6:09 AM MT · arrives 7:16 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 7%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from DEN are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,933 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip 0.01 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.