Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4053
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4053 · PHX → ABQ
departs 12:26 PM MT · arrives 2:47 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Mon 10/12 28%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into ABQ at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.