Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4130
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4130 · JAN → DFW
departs 7:05 AM CT · arrives 9:00 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Mon 10/12 9%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JAN is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAN
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.