Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4142
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4142 · DFW → ICT
departs 9:31 AM CT · arrives 10:55 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ICT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ICT?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into ICT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ICT (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.