Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4191
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4191 · ORD → ROC
departs 8:02 AM CT · arrives 10:44 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Mon 10/12 9%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 8,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.