Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4208
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4208 · SBP → PHX
departs 9:45 AM PT · arrives 11:28 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Mon 10/12 18%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBP
Weather at each end
SBP (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.