Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4215
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4215 · SMF → PHX
departs 10:01 AM PT · arrives 12:06 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.