Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4273
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4273 · TVC → ORD
departs 8:06 AM ET · arrives 8:16 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/12 10%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 23%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at TVC that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TVC (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.11 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.