Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 9868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
MQ 9868 · DFW → CLL
departs 12:25 PM CT · arrives 1:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLL more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at CLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLL?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
12pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at CLL that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
CLL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.