MX 2424 · TPA → FLL

departs 4:51 PM ET · arrives 6:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 2424 · TPA → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?