MX 466 · LAS → PVU

departs 9:25 AM PT · arrives 11:45 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at PVU more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PVU?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PVU

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

PVU (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 466 · LAS → PVU

Odds over time

How late will it get to PVU?