Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 466
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MX 466 · SNA → LAS
departs 7:23 AM PT · arrives 8:40 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 18%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.