NH 8418 · NRT → LAX

departs 2:59 PM JST · arrives 8:15 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

Weather at each end

NRT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

NH 8418 · NRT → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?