Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5138 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

OH 5138 · PHL → RIC

departs 3:56 PM ET · arrives 5:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5138 · PHL → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?